From last five years, India's GDP has grown from 5.3% to 9.1% (with real GDP 1999-2006 6.6% per annum source: IMF World Economic Outlook). Is this sustainable?
India's revenues are mainly based on export of high skilled services unlike goods, IT services being one of the major one (5.4%) (others:agriculture 20%, industry 19.3%, services 60.7%)
However, this position is challenged by China, in-terms of its rapid growth in skilled labor availability and infrastructure. Chinese position is further strengthened by its lead in manufacturing market and continued large investments. To echo my views, all the leading IT services companies of India have reported to be opening large development centers in (Wipro, TCS)China. These companies are also compelled by acute shortage of supply of quality skills within India.
Has India lost its steam as IT powerhouse? Will its poor infrastructure sign the suicide note?
Or Will the Businesses will continue to grow within India, independently, with help of diasporas expertise and investment?
Interestingly, this morning my friend Jagu shared his insights, that in next 45 years, China and India’s GDP will be more than US and to my slight disappointment and surprise, China’s GDP will be more than US, Russia, Brazil and India together (122,271 million USD; GDP per head 74,402USD, which will be 26K less than that of US. Source: Central Intelligence Agency and Experian Business Strategies)!!! That reminds me of a comedy show I saw on YouTube.
8 comments:
"Quand le Chine s'eveillera, le monde tremblera"
~ Napolean
Just keep counting guys ... that's another American strategy to counterbalance the erstwhile Soviet Union threat, that has backfired!!
That apart, China does have an enormous class differentiation problem. The growing income inequality could very well reach another tipping point that would lead to social unrest!! Do we see another Tiananmen Square around the corner? Well, hope not ... the earth is round!!
All we can wish for now is another breakup ... wie die Sowjetunion!!!
Angler! Be careful what you wish for!
The whole world economy is now so co-dependant from the Far East/Asia economies.
I've read some time back (in the Economist, I think), that the world would not fall apart if another crisis/crash happened in the US market. -'Cause it would be (Brasil+)India +China(+Russia) carrying on and continuing to grow.
Thus anyone can tell that the world would definetely experience a major crisis if it was China/India collapsing.
Bah! Ich sage nicht,es war alles so gutes in der Soviet-Union, aber es war echt schlechter bei dem "breakup". Dazu finde ich deiner Witz witztig NICHT! Does revolution really only means destroy..
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
If turnips were watches, I would wear one by my side."
Ouch!! I agree with your views ... na ja, to some extent only. China does have a checkered history in terms of social unrest (however much suppressed!) and with the extreme polarisation, unless addressed with the same/or more investment than it makes in it's military, it will turn out to be China's nemesis.
A UN report based on the Gini coefficient, a statistical measure of inequality in any given country, shows where China is heading. Zero expresses "complete equality" and one represents "complete inequality". In China this coefficient has reached 0.45. According to internationally accepted standards when the Gini coefficient for any country goes beyond 0.40 the situation could become unstable. In China not only has the 0.40 coefficient been surpassed, it is continuing to grow!! The effects will be definitely seen.
Well, there are better sides to other things Chinese ... you may wish to try some Kimchi(main ingredient - Chinese Cabbage belonging to the turnip family!) until my next post ... and yes, Kimchi is Korean - not sure which one, but I think they would make it a point to use raddish in the north, rather than using anything with a Chinese connection!!
Regarding our discussion about GDP and National Incomes, see if you compare that income per capita (what is always done in all analysis) You can compare total values!
UK: GNI per capita: US $37,600 (World Bank, 2006)
Poland: GNI per capita: US $7,100 (World Bank, 2006)
India: GNI per capita: US $720 (World Bank, 2006)
I know that India is developing very fast but high persentage is only because of low basis. For more developed economies it's difficult to achieve more that 5% of growth. But still i have respect for your economy.
All this hue and cry about where US is and when it will be overtaken etc. Just one small point which am sure most of you are aware of: Majority of the control (read money chain) is still held by Japan and Middle East (through a complicated dodgey chain of fundings in Gibraltar, Luxembourg, Monaco, Bahamas, Nassau, Cayman...). US is a sitting duck financially .. just like its president for now (with a democrat majority in Senate). Watch where Japanese, Araba & Jews put the money...
Pawel, interesting stats ... ever wondered what it would look like with the population dimension added to the mix?
By 2050, India will grow to around 1.6B, whereas UK and Poland will decline to ~58M & ~33M from today's ~60M and ~38M resp.
Now, add to that the problems of an aging population - today UK has ~16% and Poland ~14% of their population over 65 years, whereas for India, it is ~5%.
Anglers advice to you?
Go forth and multiply!
On that note, I remembered a joke:
After the great flood Noah gathered all the animals on the beach and told them "We've all survived the perils of the flood, now, as the Lord has commanded, you must go forth and multiply." A small snake replied with a sad voice "I can't MULTIPLY, I'm an ADDER." Noah thought for a while, then he went into the forrest with an axe and cut down some trees. He brought them to the beach and constructed a small wooden table. Then he told the Adder: "Now you will be able to multiply even though you're an adder. I've built you a log table!"
Wonder what the Anaconda was up to at that time! For a start, try
www.marvel.com/universe/Anaconda
Indeed, European population is getting smaller and smaller. That's the fact caused high level of development of society and life-style, I guess.
India is growing, but not evenly. Your GDP is built up by foreign investments (btw. India is still much more efficient that China). In Most of European markets it is internal demand. Also what I wanted to point out here is division of that national income. And now if you look at GDP per capita you will see the difference. According to data that I mentioned before, it's only 720$ can be used, in Polish and other European economies is much more higher. Also, as far it's concerned, even that 720$ is not spent properly. What does social development look like? How many people do live in destitution? That will be real challenge to help those people to get out from that. There's serious separation of society, poor people are getting poorer, reach - reacher.
To sum up, India, China are growing, but not developing. And that's huge difference.
What's your comment on that? :>
Pawel, I think you need to stop commenting based on half baked knowledge of the world and economics. As for your comments,
- 'high level of development of society and life-style' - How do you define that??
- btw. India is still much more efficient that China - Really??
- growing, but not developing - Really??
- GDP per capita!! - Have you heard of PPP and where the countries mentioned figure in the list?
- Do you know how much India, China and Poland have in FOREX reserves? What about oil reserves? Unemployment rates? Debt? Do you know Poland has more external debt than India despite being just around 4% of India's population?
I suggest you enjoy the joke and look at the lighter side of things ... that is when you can reach out for the log table.
Cheers!
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